Will Another Goalkeeper Ever Win The Ballon D’Or?

Will Another Goalkeeper Ever Win The Ballon D’Or?

The quickest answer to this question is no. However, not too long ago we were close to having it happen again. What I want to do here today is talk about what would need to happen in order to see another goalkeeper win the Ballon D’Or. The only goalkeeper to ever win the award was Lev Yashin of the Soviet Union. He won the award in 1963. In that same year he won the league title with his team Dynamo Moscow. Perhaps a lot of the voters were influenced by Yashin’s performance in the 1962 World Cup. I’m not going to take too much time talking about this win. Really it was a completely different time. So much so that Dynamo Moscow didn’t even participate in the European competitions that took place in 62 and 63. 

Therefore, what Lev Yashin’s win was based on is anyone’s guess. To be fair, that can be said about other Ballon D’Or winners. To better understand though what it would take to have another goalkeeper win the award we have to go back to the years of 2006 and 2014. There are two things that these years have in common regarding the Ballon D’Or. The first thing is that they were both World Cup years. Usually during World Cup years what you do in that particular tournament is going to overshadow what takes place during the club season of that year. So just for comparison it’s highly likely that we’ll see Messi win again this year because he won the World Cup with Argentina. What happened though in 2006 and 2014? 

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Gianluigi Buffon and Manuel Neuer Are The Last 2 Goalkeepers To Be Ballon D’ Or Finalists 

Perhaps the best two goalkeepers of the modern era in Gianluigi Buffon and Manuel Neuer are coincidently the last 2 keepers to find themselves as Ballon D’Or finalists. Both of them made the final 3 in a year when they had helped their country win the World Cup. With that in mind it seems fair to say that one of the key elements that needs to take place for another goalkeeper to win the award is to have them win the World Cup with their country. There’s a good reason for this. Usually with such a quick tournament like the World Cup it’s easier to see the value of having a good goalkeeper. When you want to talk about the impact that a good goalkeeper has over a league championship the true value may be even greater. 

It’s harder to play well for longer stretches, but your key saves can get lost throughout the year. With this in mind, it’s actually fair to think that if Morocco would’ve been able to pull off a miraculous World Cup win we may be talking about Yassine Bounou as the next Ballon D’Or winner. Perhaps the reason why Canavaro outlasted Buffon in 2006 is that Gigi didn’t make a penalty save in the final! Neuer for his part was key in making sure Argentina didn’t score in that 2014 final, but he maybe lacked key saves. Particularly with how easy the semifinal was for Germany at the tournament.

It Would Have To Be An Established Goalkeeper 

I’ve already mentioned that Neuer and Buffon are arguably the two best goalkeepers of their eras. This is something that I’ve actually talked about at length in other articles. It may be hard to picture Buffon’s being set by 2006 seeing as how he’s played a full lifetime after that. However, we have to remember that he broke into Serie A in 1995! By the time that he was nominated for the Ballon D’Or he boasted a 10-year career with 9 years as a starting goalkeeper for a top Serie A team. The story with Neuer in 2014 is a similar one. He had already been around the block by the time that he got that nomination. A lot of people don’t remember now, but Neuer’s run at Schalke 04 was rather high profile. 

The team at the time had signed Spanish superstar Raul from Real Madrid. That signing got the team a lot of media coverage. Also, they made a run in the Champions League. So that meant that Neuer’s time pre Bayern Munich was already spent in the spotlight. It would be really hard for someone like Dibu Martinez for example to win the award this year. He had a great World Cup, and there’s an argument to be made that he was Argentina’s most important player. However, he’s not an established commodity on the world stage. At least he wasn’t prior to the tournament. 

There Would Have To Be No Clear Superstar For A World Cup Winning Team

The problem for Dibu Martinez this year is that Messi was on his team. It’s entirely possible that Messi is just going to get the award. Even if we factored in his full season it wasn’t necessarily a great year at club level for him. The thing is, in his last Ballon D’Or win his season was even worse, and they gave him the award for winning the Copa America. Since it’s the World Cup that he won now there’s just no way that he’s losing this year. In 2014 Neuer was caught in the middle of the Cristiano Ronaldo versus Messi rivalry. France Football, the magazine that gives out the award, likely didn’t want to break that momentum to give the award to a goalkeeper.

As you can probably guess by now it’s obviously going to be very hard. Iker Casillas went through something similar to what Dibu Martinez is facing. A lot of people forget that Casillas saved Spain a ton of times during that 2010 World Cup run. If he doesn’t save that Oscar Cardozo penalty it’s Paraguay moving onto the semifinals in South Africa. Of course there’s that 1v1 play where he beats Robben. Even that wasn’t enough to even get him on the final 3. His teammates with Spain, but rivals with Barcelona Xavi, and Iniesta lost out to their teammate Lionel Messi. If we ever see a top player get on a run even similar to the one Ronaldo and Messi were on, a win for a goalkeeper seems impossible.       

Yassine Bounou - Morocco

Are There Current Goalkeepers With A Chance?

Considering all of the conditions that I’ve put forward it’s hard to picture any of the current goalkeepers having a realistic shot at winning the Ballon D’Or. There’s an outside shot for a few of them, and I’m going to talk about them here. While also going over what would need to happen for them to make a run at the trophy. 

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Thibaut Courtois – Win The Champions League & The Euros

Thibaut Courtois may very well be the goalkeeper with the best chance to win a Ballon D’Or. He’s part of a high profile team. We saw this with the Luka Modrić year. No offense to Luka, but if he hadn’t been a part of Real Madrid it would’ve been nearly impossible for him to win the award. Perhaps, I missed one of the requirements to win the award. Being on a high profile team is a must. That’s pretty much a given though because these days only high profile teams are winning the big tournaments. Playing for Real Madrid helps Courtois and especially this Real Madrid team. The current squad doesn’t have that one player that would steal the spotlight from him. Like Cristiano Ronaldo did in the past from virtually any teammate. 

Courtois may actually have a chance to win the award without international success. I still think though if we see Belgium surprise everyone and win the Euros with Courtois winning something big with Madrid he could be it! The other way that he could win it is if we’re in a year without a major international competition. So, no Euros or Copa América in the summer. If Courtois just has an amazing season with Madrid, and he’s key in them winning the Champions League and La Liga he’s got a chance. Very few goalkeepers in the top teams are in this situation where there’s not necessarily a field player that’s going to overshadow their success.    

during the Coppa Italia Semi Final match between AC Milan and Juventus at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on February 13, 2020 in Milan, Italy.

Gianluigi Donarumma – Another European Championship & Help

These days we maybe don’t talk about Gianluigi Donnarumma in the same light that we used to. It has a lot to do with the fact that he hasn’t been as dominant at PSG. In fact, he got the starting job by decree from upstairs. Keylor Navas was still the preferred option by most of the PSG managers that came through the club. In any case, Donaruma could get a crack at the Ballon D’Or if he’s able to recapture international success! He’d have to have a decent run with PSG. If they win the Champions League though, and Donaruma’s Italy beats Mbappe’s France in the Euros Mbappe would still get the Ballon D’Or win over him.

Perhaps the way that things can play out would be as follows. PSG win the league and the cup in France with an ok showing in the Champions League. Maybe a semi final exit, something like that. Italy then goes on to reclaim the European title without any major stars. Ideally, Mbappe and France get ousted in the group at the Euros. Donaruma is the tough situation that I previously discussed. If his claim to the Ballon D’Or is an amazing run with PSG, he’ll probably be overlooked for the award in favor of one of the stars that he plays with. Neymar, Mbappe, Messi, take your pick! Donaruma would have to be a key player at PSG, but maybe not win it all. Then  go to the Euros, and dominate.    

Marc Andre Ter Stegen – European Championship Win & Help

Marc Andre Ter Stegen makes a ton of sense as a potential Ballon D’Or winner. It’s just that with how bad Germany has played in their most recent outing in major tournaments it can seem unlikely. At this point Barcelona doesn’t necessarily feature a rising star that the world of football wants to crown. If Barcelona have a great year Lewandowski could certainly be a teammate of his that would block him from the award. Therefore, he would have to pick up a major win with Germany. As I mentioned this doesn’t necessarily seem likely, but then again the other 2 scenarios are not a lock either.

I shouldn’t even say this, but for Ter Stegen to win off the back of a good Barca year Lewandoski would have to be hurt to boost the German’s case. Pedri and any of the other young guys at Barca would have to be ok, but not great. The good thing about the German national team is that they usually never feature stand out individual players. It’s usually a solid squad that takes Germany to victories. So a good season with Barca and being an integral part of a German win in the Euros or even the World Cup in 3 years could see Ter Stegen by the next goalkeeper to win the Ballon D’Or 

Will Another Goalkeeper Ever Win The Ballon D’Or?

Will Another Goalkeeper Ever Win The Ballon D’Or – Conclusion

A lot of people feel that we’re going to move from the Messi-Cristiano era to the Haaland-Mbappe one. I’m secretly hoping that they don’t dominate these types of awards. When you don’t have that dominating offensive player you end up with Ballon D’Or winners like Fabio Cannavaro. I get that commercially having a keeper win isn’t necessarily a good idea. However, the way that guys like Yassine Bounou proved that goalkeepers can impact the game could help shift the narrative to include goalkeepers in the voting. I don’t think it’s probable that another goalkeeper will win the award. At the same time I don’t think it’s impossible.